The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced global passenger traffic results for April 2019 showing that demand (revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) rose by 4.3 per cent compared to April 2018. April capacity (available seat kilometers or ASKs) increased by 3.6 per cent, and load factor climbed 0.6 percentage point to 82.8 per cent, which was a record for the month of April, surpassing last year’s record of 82.2 per cent. Regionally, Africa, Europe and Latin America posted record load factors.
Comparisons between the two months are distorted owing to the timing of the Easter holiday, which occurred on April 1 in 2018 but fell much later in the month in 2019.
Alexandre de Juniac, Director General and CEO, IATA said, “We experienced solid but not exceptional rising demand for air connectivity in April. This partly is owing to the timing of Easter, but also reflects the slowing global economy. Driven by tariffs and trade disputes, global trade is falling, and as a result, we are not seeing traffic growing at the same levels as a year ago. However, airlines are doing a very good job of managing aircraft utilisation, leading to record load factors.”
April international passenger demand rose 5.1 per cent compared to April 2018. All regions recorded year-over-year traffic increases, led by airlines in Europe. Total capacity climbed 3.8 per cent, and load factor climbed 1.1 percentage points to 82.5 per cent.
European airlines’ April traffic increased sight per cent compared to the year-ago period, up from 4.9 per cent annual growth in March. While this represented the strongest monthly growth since December, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, RPKs have only risen by one per cent since November 2018, suggesting the global economic and trade backdrop – along with the uncertainty surrounding Brexit – is impacting demand. Capacity rose 6.6 per cent and load factor surged 1.1 percentage points to 85.7 per cent, highest among the regions.
Asia-Pacific carriers posted a 2.9 per cent traffic rise in April, up from two per cent growth in March but well below the long-term average. Capacity climbed 3.7 per cent and load factor dropped 0.6 percentage point to 80.8 per cent. Asia-Pacific was the only region to experience a decline in load factor compared to the same month a year ago. Results largely reflect the slowdown in global trade, including the impact from the China-US trade tensions on the broader region, which continue to weigh on passenger demand.
Middle East carriers saw demand rise 2.9 per cent in April, which was a recovery from a three per cent decline in traffic in March. Notwithstanding the monthly turnaround, in seasonally-adjusted terms the downward trend in traffic growth continues, reflecting broader structural changes affecting the industry in the region. Capacity fell 1.6 per cent and load factor soared 3.5 percentage points to 80.5 per cent.
North American airlines posted a 5.5 per cent demand increase compared to April 2018, which was up from 3.2 per cent year-over-year growth in March. A strong domestic economy, low unemployment and a strong dollar are offsetting any impacts from current trade tensions. Capacity climbed 3.2 per cent, and load factor rose 1.8 percentage points to 82.2 per cent.
Latin American airlines experienced a 5.2 per cent rise in April demand compared to the same month last year, slightly up on 4.9 per cent growth in March. Capacity increased by four per cent and load factor edged up 0.9 percentage point to 82.8 per cent. The strong results are occurring against a backdrop of economic and political uncertainty in some key regional economies. Strong South-North traffic flows may be supporting demand growth.
African airlines had a 1.1 per cent traffic increase in April, which was down from 1.6 per cent growth in March and was the slowest regional growth since early 2015. Like Latin America, Africa is seeing some economic and political uncertainty in the largest markets. Capacity climbed 0.1per cent, and load factor edged up 0.7 percentage point to 72.6 per cent.
Demand for domestic travel climbed 2.8 per cent in April compared to April 2018, down from 4.1 per cent growth in March year-over-year. The slowing trend is being driven primarily by developments in China and India discussed below. Capacity increased 3.2 per cent, and load factor slid 0.3 percentage point to 83.2 per cent.
China’s domestic traffic increased 3.4 per cent in April, up from 2.8 per cent in March, but still well below the 2016-2018 period when growth averaged around 12 per cent, reflecting the impact of the US-China trade dispute and softening in a number of economic indicators.
India’s airlines’ traffic actually fell 0.5 per cent year-over-year, reflecting the impact of the shut-down of Jet Airways. This marked the first time in six years that monthly domestic traffic declined compared to the year-ago period.
