IATA’s updated analysis of how the COVID19 crisis will impact airline passenger revenues suggests that a drop of US$314 billion in 2020, a 55 per cent decline when compared to 2019, is now more likely. On 24 March IATA estimated US$252 billion in lost revenues (-44 per cent vs. 2019) in a scenario with severe travel restrictions lasting three months.
The updated figure highlights the significant deepening of the crisis since then, and reflects the following parameters; Severe domestic restrictions lasting three months; Some restrictions on international travel extending beyond the initial three months; and Worldwide severe impact, including Africa and Latin America (which had a small presence of the disease and were expected to be less impacted in the March analysis).
Full-year passenger demand (domestic and international) is expected to be down 48 per cent compared to 2019.The two main elements driving this are:
Overall Economic Developments: The world is heading for recession. The economic shock of the COVID19 crisis is expected to be at its most severe in Q2 when GDP is expected to shrink by six per cent (by comparison, GDP shrank by two per cent at the height of the Global Financial Crisis). Passenger demand closely follows GDP progression. The impact of reduced economic activity in Q2 alone would result in an eight per cent fall in passenger demand in the third quarter.
Travel Restrictions: Travel restrictions will deepen the impact of recession on demand for travel. The most severe impact is expected to be in Q2. As of early April, the number of flights globally was down 80 per cent compared to 2019 in large part owing to severe travel restrictions imposed by governments to fight the spread of the virus. Domestic markets could still see the start of an upturn in demand beginning in the third quarter in a first stage of lifting travel restrictions. International markets, however, will be slower to resume as it appears likely that governments will retain these travel restrictions longer.
Alexandre de Juniac, Director General and CEO, IATA said, “The industry’s outlook grows darker by the day. The scale of the crisis makes a sharp V-shaped recovery unlikely. Realistically, it will be a U-shaped recovery with domestic travel coming back faster than the international market. We could see more than half of passenger revenues disappear. That would be a US$314 billion hit. Several governments have stepped up with new or expanded financial relief measures, but the situation remains critical. Airlines could burn through US$61 billion of cash reserves in the second quarter alone. That puts at risk 25 million jobs dependent on aviation. And without urgent relief, many airlines will not survive to lead the economic recovery.”
Governments must include aviation in stabilisation packages. Airlines are at the core of a value chain that supports some 65.5 million jobs worldwide. Each of the 2.7 million airline jobs supports 24 more jobs in the economy.
de Juniac added, “Financial relief for airlines today should be a critical policy measure for governments. Supporting airlines will keep vital supply chains working through the crisis. Every airline job saved will keep 24 more people employed. And it will give airlines a fighting chance of being viable businesses that are ready to lead the recovery by connecting economies when the pandemic is contained. If airlines are not ready, the economic pain of COVID-19 will be unnecessarily prolonged.”
IATA proposes a number of relief options for governments to consider, including:
– Direct financial support to passenger and cargo carriers to compensate for reduced revenues and liquidity attributable to travel restrictions imposed as a result of COVID19;
– Loans, loan guarantees and support for the corporate bond market by governments or central banks. The corporate bond market is a vital source of finance for airlines, but the eligibility of corporate bonds for central bank support needs to be extended and guaranteed by governments to provide access for a wider range of companies;
– Tax relief: Rebates on payroll taxes paid to date in 2020 and/or an extension of payment terms for the rest of 2020, along with a temporary waiver of ticket taxes and other government-imposed levies.
