Not very long ago several critics had written off the cruise industry revival and some had even drafted the epitaph and waiting for the right time to pounce. It did not take the cruise industry that long to prove everyone wrong and emerge from the shadow of gloom into the bright sunshine widespread over the oceans of the world. In the last 4-5 months, the cruise industry has continued to propel itself towards a return to normalcy. Going by the surge of bookings and number of ships operating in various parts of the world, we are nearing a point of inflection with the worst of the pandemic now behind us. Due to the multiple factors – strict health protocols, border restrictions, vaccination coverage etc., the recovery has been gradual but now the cruise industry is able to look forward to the future with gratitude towards its stake holders, excitement to host passengers from across the world and confidence of a warrior after one of the darkest phases in the history of cruise industry.
Having represented some of the most reputed brands of the cruise industry in India for over two decades and being an integral part of the cruise industry for close to 25 years, I have a very clear vision and a growth roadmap ahead of us in establishing India as one of the top cruise source markets for international & domestic cruise brands. This roadmap is full of positivity for the optimistic future surrounded by the unending resumption efforts by the cruise industry.
Full Fleet by Spring & Normal Occupancy Levels by Summer (2022)
After almost 18 months of the voluntary suspension, industry experts estimate that 70% of the global fleet has resumed sailing by end of 2021, which equates to approximately 5.5 million passengers who have cruised since resumption in June 2020. Based on recent “Return to Service” updates from all major brands, it is anticipated that 100% of the fleet would back in service by Spring 2022, with full load factors by end of Summer 2022.
Based on statements from their latest earnings calls, each brands’ remaining resumption plans are summarized below:
Each cruise line, during the “Pause” took severe measures to minimize & optimize costs. These measures include selling older, less efficient vessels, as well as increased operating efficiencies and cost structures.
New Ship Builds
This year will see 32 new cruise ships debut, made up of 25 new ships on the cruise ship orderbook for 2022, plus an additional seven vessels that were built in 2021 and are expected to enter revenue service this year.
The new ship line up of 2022 will contribute 44,659 new berths to the market, plus an additional 23,366 berths from ships from 2021 that will debut this year, meaning 68,025 new berths are set to enter the cruise industry in 2022. These newer vessels would not only provide additional capacity, but richer cabin mixes and more operational efficiencies would add to more revenues for the cruise lines.
Governments Response
Pandemic has also made government of each country somewhat self-centric – in the guise of safeguarding the interest of their own citizens, each country has imposed a number of restrictions which have caused people to remain locked down or under self-restrain. If it was not for the global cooperation, the pandemic would have reigned for several more years. Current times require world to remain connected, not only through virtual mode but also physical, therefore we must open borders and allow resumption of international schedule flights which has been suspended by nearly 22 months now.
No setting is immune from Covid-19. The difference, however, is that cruise ships are subject to stringent measures that include testing and vaccination requirements before boarding and detailed response plans to manage any suspected cases on board. This isn’t true in most land-based settings, and it’s now clear the incidence of Covid-19 is far lower on cruise ships than it is on land.
Prevention by Self-Monitoring & Self-Regulation
Most cruise lines continue to take proactive action in response to the pandemic, going above and beyond in the interest of public health and safety. Many cruise lines have announced additional measures in response to the Omicron variant, including strengthening testing, masking and other requirements, as well as encouraging booster vaccine doses for those eligible. Some cruise lines are requiring an additional test at embarkation, on top of the test that all guests need to take within 48 hours of embarkation. Additionally, protocols which encompass the entirety of the cruise experience, incorporating a multi-layered approach to testing, vaccination, mask-wearing, enhanced ventilation, sanitation, and other science-backed measures have been introduced.
Bounce Back in 2022
Broadly speaking, no other travel business has taken so many preventive steps to handle pandemic despite having an already existing high standards of hygiene & health protocols.
If the booking pace & the surge of queries is any measure of reference, the entire cruise industry is set to have a great comeback by end of 2022, and it is entirely upto us if we would like to continue to sit at the fence or take a deep dive into this glorious & rewarding business.
By Nishith Saxena, Founder & Director, Cruise Professionals.